|
Dec. 17,
2008
Kelsey Group Analysts Identify Key
2009 Trends to Watch in Local Media
Highlights include developments in
voice search, local social marketplaces and mobile directories,
and use of traditional media as a differentiator.
PRINCETON, N.J. (Dec.
17,
2008) – The Kelsey Group (www.kelseygroup.com)
has identified more than two-dozen key trends and industry developments
to watch in 2009 in interactive local media, global Yellow Pages,
and vertical directories and classifieds. Among the predictions
prepared by Kelsey Group program directors Charles Laughlin,
Matt Booth and Peter Krasilovsky for the firm’s advisory
services clients, are developments in voice search, local social
marketplaces and mobile directories, and use of traditional media
as a differentiator.
“For some time now, our analyst team has
been predicting that 2010 would be a tipping point,” said
Neal Polachek, chief executive officer, The Kelsey Group. “The
complexities facing the local advertising industry as a result
of the challenging global economic situation are likely to accelerate
the transition of some local advertising dollars to the Internet,
while at the same time making the role of the local media sales
representative more important than ever. In 2009 we will continue
to research and report on these trends and expand our coverage
across traditional and online segments with input from fellow
BIA Advisory Services analysts who produce market-by-market revenue
estimates.”
Among The Kelsey Group’s predictions for
local media in 2009 are:
- SMB Video Ads. Kelsey Group analysts
are beginning to see data that suggest the firm’s aggressive video
ad forecasts might have been too low. At Interactive Local
Media 2008, for example, Gordon Henry, Spotzer’s
president of North and South America, suggested that within
a few years half of SMBs that have Web sites will have
a video advertisement. That’s approximately 3 million
small-business ads in the next few years in the United
States alone. What to watch for in 2009: Even faster
adoption than The Kelsey Group’s forecast of a 163
percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
- The Online-Only Yellow Pages Publisher? For
some time The Kelsey Group has been predicting that an existing
print directory publisher would divest all or much of its
print operations and transform itself into an online-only
business with an established sales force and brand. This
hasn’t happened yet, but Kelsey analysts believe
the prospects of it occurring in the next 12 to 18 months
are reasonably good. However, some willing sellers may
have trouble finding willing buyers. What to watch for
in 2009: Look for organizations that are structured
to enable a clean separation of the print operation. Also
look for organizations that are clearly disinvesting in
print by shifting all or most marketing and product development
funding and energy to the online product.
- Mobile YP Leaves the Laboratory. The
Kelsey Group expects to see directory publishers treat mobile
as something more than a science project, or a modest extension
of Internet Yellow Pages distribution. As smartphones, iPhone
and iPhone wannabes proliferate, mobile will become a key
usage channel and publishers will begin to find ways to monetize
it, though we don’t expect to see much meaningful revenue
in 2009. Google has stepped into these waters with its recent
launch of iPhone and G1 ad targeting. What to watch for in 2009: As
publishers look increasingly to sell a bundle of leads across
media platforms, they will want to include mobile as one source
of leads. We’ll also see whether publishers follow Google’s
lead and begin offering advertising units exclusive to mobile
platforms.
- Local Marketplace Sites Jump on Social Bandwagon. The
big social sites such as Facebook have been largely missing
in action on the local front. But Facebook is opening up
via Facebook Connect, which allows sites such as Citysearch
to use its profiles and other features to their own ends.
The site is also being used by local marketers such as
Campusfood.com for games that increase loyalty and patronage.
Its “Food Friendzy,” for instance, currently
has 27,000 users. What to watch for in 2009: Expect
to see a lot of use for this (and not just on Facebook).
Many sites will implement other social features on their
own, such as ratings and reviews, photos, videos and bulletin
boards.
- Voice Search Usage Will Accelerate. Voice search is
gaining traction at portals and Internet companies. Missing
among the players (which include Google, Vlingo and Tellme)
is a major Yellow Pages publisher. Kelsey Group analysts caution
publishers not to ignore a critical window into their local
data for too long or the opportunity will pass them by. What
to watch for in 2009: Major Yellow Pages publishers to
build or buy a voice search solution.
- Use of Traditional Media Becomes Differentiator. The
role of traditional media has been beaten down by the
arrival of new media channels and search. But it still
has a broader scale and reaches more people than new
media. Indeed, with dropouts of many key advertisers,
better positions (and prices) help them stand out.
Expect to see TV ads, radio and to a lesser extent,
newspapers, act as differentiators for leading online
services. Services such as HouseValues.com are already
going this route. What to watch for in 2009: Look
for cross-media bundles bringing together newspapers,
TV, radio and online services.
A year-end review of events revealed the Kelsey analyst
team achieved 75 percent accuracy on its 2008 predictions, with 18 of 24
predictions classified as “on
target.”
About BIA Advisory Services, LLC
BIA Advisory Services, LLC, a subsidiary of BIA Financial Network, provides
research, data, analysis, and financial and strategic consulting to media,
telecommunications, technology, directory publishing, and local search
companies. BIA Advisory Services includes The Kelsey Group, experts in
traditional and online local media and advertising; BIA Research, providers
of competitive and comparative market information and analysis through
data services, specialized reporting, engineering studies and mapping;
and BIA Consulting, specialists in business intelligence and corporate
growth strategy, and the nation’s leading communications appraisal
and valuation firm. Additional information is available at www.bia.com.
About The Kelsey Group
The Kelsey Group, a division of BIA Advisory Services, LLC, is
the leading provider of research, data and strategic analysis on
directories, small-business advertising, online local media, vertical
market advertising and mobile advertising. As the premier analyst
firm covering the directory publishing community and the emerging
local search marketplace, The Kelsey Group provides advisory services
(The Kelsey Report®, Interactive Local Media and Marketplaces),
publishing (Global Yellow Pages™), consulting (more than
400 individual assignments) and conferences (74 events). For more
information about The Kelsey Group, visit www.kelseygroup.com.
For more information contact:
Eileen Pacheco
For The Kelsey Group
(781) 556-1026 | eileen@tango-group.com
MacKenzie Lovings
BIA Advisory Services, LLC
(703) 802-2992 | mlovings@bia.com
|
